So you think you can forecast the weather?
Over the years of weather watching, it’s become apparent that there a lot of folks out there who’ve taken a stab at forecasting. One of the first who came onto the scene was Bill Foggitt, a local (farmer?) from North Yorkshire who made his forecasts by watching nature and writing a little column for a local newspaper. He didn’t try to make any money from it and just enjoyed talking weather with people. He was a local character. Everyone loved Bill.
Since the internet came along, weather forecasting has exploded. There’s a plethora of info out there for people to reference. As usual, there’s people who reckon they can make money out of it. Some of these people are really good and knowledgeable, but for every few that are, there’s the usual crop of charlatans who claim they can forecast better than the Met Office by using nothing other than an old sock and a laptop. They claim that their system (unpublished and unvetted) is superior in every way and can see waaaaay into the future. They also claim nearly 100% accuracy.
This guy can’t!
One of these individuals is running a ‘business’ called Exacta Weather (i’m not giving him a link in a million years). He started up in 2010 when he luckily predicted the winter to be cold. He saw an opportunity to make money and has issued ‘forecasts’ ever since, charging ridiculous amounts of money for those gullible enough to stump up the cash for his vague tosh. He’s never predicted anything correctly since then. Whatever Exacta Weather predicts, the real weather does exactly the opposite.
The company (not registered at Companies House, so he’s a sole-trader) is run by a deluded guy called James Madden. The way he writes his forecasts, he tries to give the impression that he is an expert and has a team of devoted meteorologists working for his company, but in fact he is a one man band operating from a poky flat in Lancaster. That is his first deception. He has no meteorological qualifications whatsoever. He sends out spam emails by using disposable email addresses and sends his lies to all the papers like the Daily Express, where his ‘partner in crime’ is a guy called Nathan Rao. Between them they are responsible for 95% of the crap weather stories that appear in the media. None of the stories are remotely true or based on real science, they are just bulls**t generated to sell papers. The tabloids lap it up. It’s the ‘worst winter for 100 years’ every year according to them. The Met Office get the blame when they are wrong. It was the Weather Forecasters who ‘don’t have a clue’ and ‘can’t forecast for tomorrow’, let alone 5 days ahead. No-one noticed the original forecast didn’t come from the Met Office, but from James Madden or the other guy whose name must also be mentioned, Piers Corbyn (yes, he is the brother of Labour leader Jeremy and equally as potty).
Fiddling the figures
What usually happens then is the weather doesn’t ‘conform’ to his forecast, Madden then tries to claim he was right by verifying his own forecast of, for example ‘widespread snow’ against a dusting on top of the Cairngorms. He is so inept that the product he used to sell for ££££’s after his lucky break in 2010 can now be seen hawked for a few pence on his website. He is a complete charlatan and liar who makes money out of scaring old ladies they are going to freeze to death every winter.
Please don’t believe anything James Madden/Exacta Weather say. He is a liar and a cheat. His forecasts are total fiction, have no basis in the science of Meteorology and don’t stand up to scrutiny. He couldn’t forecast darkness at night time. 😉
Read this book to find out how the weather REALLY works.
There’s more on fake weather stories here
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